The record, in full. Every day the Vault Picks engine screens our sold-market data and makes at most 3 buy calls — zero-pick days are normal. Each pick’s entry price is locked at pick date and tracked to resolution: hit (net proceeds reach +25% over entry, after ~13% marketplace fees and ~$4 shipping — picks made before 4 Aug 2026 are judged on the older bar they were set under: gross price +50%, which nets roughly +20–30%), below stop (thesis broken), or expired (horizon closed without a hit). Nothing is removed from this ledger. Active picks are shown to supporters only; everything resolved is public below. Research, not financial advice.
Measured against doing nothing
—
Vault Picks hit rate
38.8%
Comparable cards, same 6 months
The right-hand figure is every PSA 10 Pokémon single in the picks’ own $25–$600 entry band (1,980 cards), measured over the last six months with no selection applied — median move 35.4%. If the engine works, the left number should beat the right one over time. It is far too early to read anything into either.
13
Picks made · 13 daily calls
0
Resolved · 0 hit / 0 stopped / 0 expired
—
Win rate on resolved
—
Avg gain on hits
Pick prices are TCGplayer market (NM) — reproducible and auditable.
13 active picks currently on the board — supporters see them live, with entries, targets, and stops. See Supporter Perks
Current methodology v3
v3 picks (since 2026-07-16) gate on confirmed, agreeing momentum in real sold data. This cohort is maturing — first full review ~Sep 2026, when its earliest picks reach 60-day maturity.
No resolved picks in this cohort yet.
11 of this cohort’s 11 picks are still active — tracked live for supporters.
v2 (discontinued methodology) — 2 picks · 2026-07-03 → 2026-07-15
These were honest live calls, kept on the record — but the v2 engine was retired after we found it had generated picks on a partially frozen price pipeline and a much smaller candidate universe. They are excluded from methodology evidence; their outcomes still count here.
No resolved picks in this cohort yet.
2 of this cohort’s 2 picks are still active — tracked live for supporters.
v1 (early methodology, discontinued) — 0 picks · 2026-06-12 → 2026-07-02
The original pick engine, before quantitative gates and stop discipline existed. Kept on the record in full; not evidence for the current methodology.
No resolved picks in this cohort yet.
Ledger updated hourly from stored market data. “Change to date” is the current tracked price vs the locked entry. A “below stop” outcome is evaluated on the latest fresh price row (frozen prices never assert a stop). Past picks are never edited or removed.